POST HERE..

Please feel free to participate with your comments here…above

Advantage zyaada

OOh A Voltas A/c for the House and a Videocon CTV with DTH!!!

A Catch up plateau by  samsung and LG combined with a year of slow growth in durables means the twins Samsung and LG have been separated in most actegories to at least one #3 positionas Voltas and Videocoan have finally caught up with the latest mass technologies. S o till LED Displays become mandatory in the next 2-3 years don;t be surprised at people adding Videocon CTVs and Voltas A/cs. 

DTH subscribers are up to 45 mln, Dish TV having sold 20 mln of those ( and I have two wasted boxes lyng in the penthouse storage somewhere, so you now the counting) Tata Sky with 9 mln and Airtel 8.5 mln no doubt caught up by the big bang in CBS viewership and 18 prime (CNBC). 

Somehow, I am wondering why this population is not going to be 90 mln when there is more people with TV knowledge than the number of mobiles floating around! Anyone get there yet? This year will be more marketing start ups with image bazaar watermarked images as that is yet an untapped market, but aren;’t one of those handhelds or tv remoters spiked . Maybe you could spike teenagers sunglasses to recover the rest what market research cannot fnd in urban or rural fand from someone who actually wins more than a mirror in popularity contests. 

 

 

Happy Thursdays! India’s Asia story a goner..

Though the Nifty hit 5400 and many of us from Global MBA schools have managed to hang on to senior jobs in Global 500 corporations, India’s own growth stroy as a leading light in Asia is much more subdued and most would say lost except that whatever one does , India will be the no. 3 Economy behind the China and the US inc. balance sheeets in GDP and in young working population, it now enjoys and advantage to grow its GDP to the 7% ‘sing song rate’ and higher on average, jumping in the boom years. 

Our banking superstructure is however hardly $2 tln, Foreign banks contributing hardly 10% in market share, Indian CDS still unlisted in globally liquid markets and India’s Iranian connection with $12 bln in purchases or 12% of our requirmement paid in rupees , still a diplomatic thorn in the side of the US after being virtually ignored on Foreign policy. Whither from here and all that, markets are good enough to get the Capital back into Capital goods and we should get about our infrastructure and welfare spending for the next 5 years, even head in the sand would not matter as we reap the “dividend” of this laid back super growth.

Also, Indonesia is catching up and we are not a major partner in Asia or Africa. . China has military intentions. We are not very social in the world of social media and in jumping opportunities on our neighbours, London’s looking like a crown of thorns, Europe lost to the world for a few years and the US has apparently realised it is not very good in global businesses, it;s Financial sector pulling out of everywhere except the US itself. just a thought..

BTW, interesting tidbits, 5 metro projects together bought insurance worth INR 700 bln for INR 3 bln in premium income for the GICs, CTS sales add to the US GDP ( and it’s good someone does that, being treated as cost for so much manpower really sucks) and Credit Suisse’ $1 Tln balance sheet is not rid of all the ooze yet, this year ending with a $670 mln loss and $3 bln in bonuses from 5, ever wonder why? 

The MCX promoter war continues with their options sold to trading members on the exchange and yet with a call option for the promoters to buy back!! USE also has 49.75% stake from trading members, rather a gentlemen’s club and the road to Asia for FIIs is still thru the ubiquitous forex trade, the kind we have almost closed off with just $300 bln inr eserves, a rising import bill at least would have been taken care off if there was the free trade in currency, but then we do not want to lose our safety and swap it for the currency volatility of the banana republics, the tiger economies and the big brother bears from Russia and Brazil..we are happy with half a dozen indonesia deals and half a dozen in Africa?

Happy Thursdays! Paying market prices for Spectrum

Telcos would now be paying $250 mln per MHz as a likely avrerage price for new spectrum, including 122 canceled licences. Even if 61 o fthose licenses are purchased at the new price of upto $2 bln on average per operator , that is $12 bln more in the government kitty and hopefully larger at $20-24 bln with all licensees buying the regional spectrum in the new dispensation. 

However that also means an expensive mobile bill as ARPUs below 100 Airtel educates us to grows back in billin grates by 60-70% to pay for the new spectrum and in the case of new telcos making older pricing plans virtually impossible to emulate even though someone with a reputable network like Uninor ( among the newbies) only has 36-40 mln customers and at a much lower ARPU. 

Chidambaram may not be arraigned by the court later this week (today/tomorrow) but uirreparable harm may have been done to the Indian Body politic with or without Sibal Prices can easily cross 4 times the bid (not bid) auction prices used in 2008

Inflation is coming back too and so are dire predictions of slow growth for India as Rupee’s best is barely below 50 against the Dollar. All in all time for banks to start the nose down from 5250 to something near 5000 to assess and predicate the course for the rest of the old fisc in waiting for the budget. 

PSE Auctions are still likely a good thing but the government receipts could close on the Spectrum deal faster. Also with the new plan period in action, Infra plays being financed by debt funds  and inviting new participation around the globe are also likely to bring the cheer back as interest rates start the climb down in 2-3 months.

Happy Thursdays! The weekly inflation data is gone..

A lot more of the pizzazz has come back into Indian expert speak as commentators build on the value multiples in the Capital Marrkets. Now that the indices have journeyed into skyscraper Monday – Wednesday, one would wonder why investors bother with an India portfolio at all, as very few got in at 4700 and very few will now get out at 5100 , that the indices if ever will come down for further buying below 4700.

India’s premium also means it identifies the data series for inflation as too much scattered data on primary inflation and fuel inflation thus we now have to work with CCEA’s monthly week1 release of WPI alone.  

Luckily, the banks and infrastructure companies are back even if you count out the redundancies of 1200 at HSBC, 100 at Citi and a few at BNP. Trade Finance should be good for those considering hiring in their banks. Esp as Trade and Finance growth CAGR is likely too remain in the 20s despite the statistics and the infrastructure pad ups. 

StanC is hiring, Singapore and Dubai could probably open up to Indian hiring soon and the US gets rid of outsourcing bug we might even look at global companies getting more H1Bs for welcome immigration in other professions esp in Financial Services and other Travel/Transportation, Education and Healthcare, where we can compete with other diaspora from China and Mexico / LatAm as well for what is due to immigrants that make America’s 47% science jobs and 24% of all jobs. 

The Bank Nifty is pulling out though, If you bought a few puts before Tuesday you would be good for a few millions in the bank too.  And youmay need to book your trades more frequently as it is giving you an opportunity to do that because it mulls new upmoves midway , like probably tomorrow Puts could lose value when Bank Nifty spikes again, before the big move down. 

Happy Thursdays! A good day for economics

Hero Moto Corp, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Auto all hit expectations right and made merry of the third quarter encompassing a giant Festival run for India from Dusshera, Diwali nad Id to end with Christmas and the new year celebrations.  

Quarter on Quarter comparisons showed up great daredevil performances by industry leaders even as food inflation, negative for the third week in succession, for the new year’s week ended Jan 7 at -0.42% and Primary Articles at 2.47%, fuel still 14.45% and onions still down 75% on the same week last year. the 52 week average for the jan 7 week (nasdaq/rttnews.com) is 9.96% and this number considerably lower near the 7.41% number for December 2011 Fuel weightage is 31%, and non food articles at 20% weight scored a low 2%. Primary Articles were less than 0.5% for te weeek ended Dec 31 last week

The Nifty stayed above 5018 and you should be buying puts now, (check our choice FAO strategy) as the index may not climb further to 5100 from here without a plateau and thence the breakdown. The remaining optimism will remain on call from today’s results however. 

IPL auctions come back in February, with the entire South African team and the choice speedsters including Peter Siddle and Mitchell Johnson on the block from down under. 

Back in financial results only 47% of the last two months results announcements were above par in the US incl Citi and JP Morgan below the line and headed for more pain in 2012.

 

Happy Thursdays! The sunset for Food inflation, IT and IIP

Food inflation wow remained -2.9% after a -3.36% last week, Primary Articles also read easy at 0.51% from 0.10% Fuel inflation was 14.45% from 14.6% last week TTK Prestige results look good with 39% sales growth (YOY), Investment positives from both announcements TTK and Infosys ( more real estate and training!) TTK prestige on the receiving side of rupee depreciation with domestic sales

HDFC will post good growth ( is it tommorrow?? ) safe in NIMs and the IIP growth came back to 6% clip on Transportation and Consumer durables and non durables climbing back from October lows Infy Q4 PAT was a great 23.72 bln

The infra stocks are back having had quite a rest in the fall to 4700. the indices back on a falling spree after banking reached its peak mid day at 8960 odd on the bank nifty, large 20 point premiums on the Nifty 50 futures, starting  a vacuous drop after Infy good results were shot to hell by a “We can’t grow” guidance

Happy Thursdays! Food inflation corrects – Welcome 2012

The 14% contribution of the food inflation may well bring cheer to the WPI number as Food caught a -3.36% score for the week ended December 24th to bring primary articles to 0.10% from a low 3% number last week and fuel remained suspended at 14.6% for another 25-30% of the basket. Everyuthing else in tow, Foreign inflows should make it a memorable 2012 for India but our local interests and trades of high volumes seem to have caught the index midway to the bottom. Actually there is perhaps just 15% left but one having to agree at these rates and settle down with MTM losses on my 10% risky allocation to the emergin g market play is hardly going to be the likely scenario so one will have to wait considerably more for furious inflows into equity even as markets catch a break below 47 and promptly lose it at 4750 over the last two months. Not a very good advertisement for foreign and local investors. 

Of course QFIs have been welcomed, buybacks allowed with direct auctions on the exchanges to bring equity to a 75% cap and individual investors allowed to enter Indian equity exposures from January 15, following on the ealrier invitation to Individual foreign investors in mutual funds. NO one expected an immediate surge but if that is because of no printed word on the how and why, the regulator should have no problem obliging witht hat as well. 

RBI is admitting that we need more FX buffers now as companies have picked up large amounts of short term debt and while the rush to repay is on and amany with good governance have survived the MTM losses massacre before it began, India’s current account may already face a stretch to buy the oil it needs every other month

 

 

Happy Thursdays! A trading thursday before the new series

As 2012 begins on a low note , market levels are encouraging enough for investors to make a commitment to India for more than a few million and they laso have been able to play the non FII traders in the market who continue to roll over (angel brok) short positions in short of the eternal 4500. Inflation figures were encouraging witha 6 year low on food inflation

Onions were 40% cheaper last week, 60% this week while potatoes are also down 33% as warehouses start collecting stocks and rot starts while waiting for good exports prices. 

Primary inflation came under 3% meraning good numbers for basic goods and primary articles supporting the falling nose of inflation with fuel stubbornly continuing but lower at 14.5%

There have been subtle changes in the Dollar – Euro – Commodities links ( see article ) in this month despite the year end low volumes and lack of interest which evidence a great year for equities from next week! Happy new year,everyone and thanks for staying around! 

 

 

Related articles

• Happy Thursdays! Another week, Another crash.. (hitco.advantages.us)
• Happy Thursdays! Announcing a sunset for Food inflation (awardz.wordpress.com)
• Happy Thursdays! The india inflation reports for September (awardz.wordpress.com)
• Food inflation falls to 6-year low of 0.42 pc (ibnlive.in.com)

Happy Thursdays! Another week, Another crash..

Bank of America on the other side and lately some banks here have started looking happier only on days when the market has crashed beyond expectations, making these a regular weekly feature of the market. Though Bank of america has been outwitted by the Euro and will bleed for more time, the india markets and its new found drerivatives losses will bottom out in the next 200 Nifty points as new suspicions emerge on prop trading desks at the end of the local’s route in Mumbai.

Food inflation plopped to below 2% this week and I suspect more higher numbers are still left in urban consumption items like fruits and vegetables in that even as the food subsidy bill gets closer to becoming a law. RBI’s FSR was also lined by ratatouille chameli and tom cruise bacchchan as having brought lasting relief in real estate seen by a three hour long rally in DLF, Unitech and HDIL among other strange asteroid fragments in the troposphere currently.

Go Short, Expiry is near

The early edition of this report caused a good midday rally for easy pickings friday and monday on the banks and anything else you like

The Air train between Delhi and Mumbai saw Cyrus Mistry in industrial grade discuss throwing with our own MOFCOM with Ratan Tata fadng away in another 12 months, discussions on VSNL land patying up taxes becoming more insistent ( oops, its Tata comm now)

The end ( of the bear rally) is near in India’s case (please do no tbuy before 4400 is broken to a new low) and my portfolio of trading plus investing is usually a good leading indicator ( from lounging on the sofa awaiting employment)

Our post on the bond Report will show banks using the MSF and yields staying down as the last experts get entrapped into thinking the Bear has finally come to India, Asia being the land of the eternal Bull panda.

Related articles

• Happy Thursdays! Announcing a sunset for Food inflation (awardz.wordpress.com)
• Happy Thursdays! East is East? (awardz.wordpress.com)
• Happy Thursdays! Let’s forget inflation, aviation, consolidation and eternal damnation (awardz.wordpress.com)
• Bank of America CEO says 2012 will be ‘a grind in the economy’ (bizjournals.com)
• Happy Thursdays! November buzzes everyone (awardz.wordpress.com)
• BoA in record discrimination fine (bbc.co.uk)

Happy Thursdays! Announcing a sunset for Food inflation

The weekly numbers for the December 3 week continued on a much higher plane even as governments and markets battled with the 9+ figure for November with Fuel group capped at a 0.3 MOM increase to a 15.23% rate, Food  rate down to 4.35% from a 6.6% in Nov 26 figures, and Primary articles looking distinctly sunny at 5.48% instead of more than 7% last week. Thus mfg inflation / basic inputs contributing to that would have also stayed below 4% and the series distinctly showing signs of beating 8% for December except the Fuels number as prices catch up with ourdear dollar basket

Commodities globally have finally entered a decent correction phase as Gold was beaten to the haven by the Dollar, running behind investment allocations as its lower value starts bringing down global portfolio sizes and increasing allocations to equities in just maintaing share of allocation..In case you did not get that, please write..