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Happy Thursdays! The weekly inflation data is gone..

A lot more of the pizzazz has come back into Indian expert speak as commentators build on the value multiples in the Capital Marrkets. Now that the indices have journeyed into skyscraper Monday – Wednesday, one would wonder why investors bother with an India portfolio at all, as very few got in at 4700 and very few will now get out at 5100 , that the indices if ever will come down for further buying below 4700.

India’s premium also means it identifies the data series for inflation as too much scattered data on primary inflation and fuel inflation thus we now have to work with CCEA’s monthly week1 release of WPI alone.  

Luckily, the banks and infrastructure companies are back even if you count out the redundancies of 1200 at HSBC, 100 at Citi and a few at BNP. Trade Finance should be good for those considering hiring in their banks. Esp as Trade and Finance growth CAGR is likely too remain in the 20s despite the statistics and the infrastructure pad ups. 

StanC is hiring, Singapore and Dubai could probably open up to Indian hiring soon and the US gets rid of outsourcing bug we might even look at global companies getting more H1Bs for welcome immigration in other professions esp in Financial Services and other Travel/Transportation, Education and Healthcare, where we can compete with other diaspora from China and Mexico / LatAm as well for what is due to immigrants that make America’s 47% science jobs and 24% of all jobs. 

The Bank Nifty is pulling out though, If you bought a few puts before Tuesday you would be good for a few millions in the bank too.  And youmay need to book your trades more frequently as it is giving you an opportunity to do that because it mulls new upmoves midway , like probably tomorrow Puts could lose value when Bank Nifty spikes again, before the big move down. 

Happy Thursdays! A good day for economics

Hero Moto Corp, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Auto all hit expectations right and made merry of the third quarter encompassing a giant Festival run for India from Dusshera, Diwali nad Id to end with Christmas and the new year celebrations.  

Quarter on Quarter comparisons showed up great daredevil performances by industry leaders even as food inflation, negative for the third week in succession, for the new year’s week ended Jan 7 at -0.42% and Primary Articles at 2.47%, fuel still 14.45% and onions still down 75% on the same week last year. the 52 week average for the jan 7 week (nasdaq/rttnews.com) is 9.96% and this number considerably lower near the 7.41% number for December 2011 Fuel weightage is 31%, and non food articles at 20% weight scored a low 2%. Primary Articles were less than 0.5% for te weeek ended Dec 31 last week

The Nifty stayed above 5018 and you should be buying puts now, (check our choice FAO strategy) as the index may not climb further to 5100 from here without a plateau and thence the breakdown. The remaining optimism will remain on call from today’s results however. 

IPL auctions come back in February, with the entire South African team and the choice speedsters including Peter Siddle and Mitchell Johnson on the block from down under. 

Back in financial results only 47% of the last two months results announcements were above par in the US incl Citi and JP Morgan below the line and headed for more pain in 2012.

 

Happy Thursdays! The sunset for Food inflation, IT and IIP

Food inflation wow remained -2.9% after a -3.36% last week, Primary Articles also read easy at 0.51% from 0.10% Fuel inflation was 14.45% from 14.6% last week TTK Prestige results look good with 39% sales growth (YOY), Investment positives from both announcements TTK and Infosys ( more real estate and training!) TTK prestige on the receiving side of rupee depreciation with domestic sales

HDFC will post good growth ( is it tommorrow?? ) safe in NIMs and the IIP growth came back to 6% clip on Transportation and Consumer durables and non durables climbing back from October lows Infy Q4 PAT was a great 23.72 bln

The infra stocks are back having had quite a rest in the fall to 4700. the indices back on a falling spree after banking reached its peak mid day at 8960 odd on the bank nifty, large 20 point premiums on the Nifty 50 futures, starting  a vacuous drop after Infy good results were shot to hell by a “We can’t grow” guidance

Happy Thursdays! Food inflation corrects – Welcome 2012

The 14% contribution of the food inflation may well bring cheer to the WPI number as Food caught a -3.36% score for the week ended December 24th to bring primary articles to 0.10% from a low 3% number last week and fuel remained suspended at 14.6% for another 25-30% of the basket. Everyuthing else in tow, Foreign inflows should make it a memorable 2012 for India but our local interests and trades of high volumes seem to have caught the index midway to the bottom. Actually there is perhaps just 15% left but one having to agree at these rates and settle down with MTM losses on my 10% risky allocation to the emergin g market play is hardly going to be the likely scenario so one will have to wait considerably more for furious inflows into equity even as markets catch a break below 47 and promptly lose it at 4750 over the last two months. Not a very good advertisement for foreign and local investors. 

Of course QFIs have been welcomed, buybacks allowed with direct auctions on the exchanges to bring equity to a 75% cap and individual investors allowed to enter Indian equity exposures from January 15, following on the ealrier invitation to Individual foreign investors in mutual funds. NO one expected an immediate surge but if that is because of no printed word on the how and why, the regulator should have no problem obliging witht hat as well. 

RBI is admitting that we need more FX buffers now as companies have picked up large amounts of short term debt and while the rush to repay is on and amany with good governance have survived the MTM losses massacre before it began, India’s current account may already face a stretch to buy the oil it needs every other month

 

 

Happy Thursdays! A trading thursday before the new series

As 2012 begins on a low note , market levels are encouraging enough for investors to make a commitment to India for more than a few million and they laso have been able to play the non FII traders in the market who continue to roll over (angel brok) short positions in short of the eternal 4500. Inflation figures were encouraging witha 6 year low on food inflation

Onions were 40% cheaper last week, 60% this week while potatoes are also down 33% as warehouses start collecting stocks and rot starts while waiting for good exports prices. 

Primary inflation came under 3% meraning good numbers for basic goods and primary articles supporting the falling nose of inflation with fuel stubbornly continuing but lower at 14.5%

There have been subtle changes in the Dollar – Euro – Commodities links ( see article ) in this month despite the year end low volumes and lack of interest which evidence a great year for equities from next week! Happy new year,everyone and thanks for staying around! 

 

 

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• Happy Thursdays! Another week, Another crash.. (hitco.advantages.us)
• Happy Thursdays! Announcing a sunset for Food inflation (awardz.wordpress.com)
• Happy Thursdays! The india inflation reports for September (awardz.wordpress.com)
• Food inflation falls to 6-year low of 0.42 pc (ibnlive.in.com)

Happy Thursdays! Another week, Another crash..

Bank of America on the other side and lately some banks here have started looking happier only on days when the market has crashed beyond expectations, making these a regular weekly feature of the market. Though Bank of america has been outwitted by the Euro and will bleed for more time, the india markets and its new found drerivatives losses will bottom out in the next 200 Nifty points as new suspicions emerge on prop trading desks at the end of the local’s route in Mumbai.

Food inflation plopped to below 2% this week and I suspect more higher numbers are still left in urban consumption items like fruits and vegetables in that even as the food subsidy bill gets closer to becoming a law. RBI’s FSR was also lined by ratatouille chameli and tom cruise bacchchan as having brought lasting relief in real estate seen by a three hour long rally in DLF, Unitech and HDIL among other strange asteroid fragments in the troposphere currently.

Go Short, Expiry is near

The early edition of this report caused a good midday rally for easy pickings friday and monday on the banks and anything else you like

The Air train between Delhi and Mumbai saw Cyrus Mistry in industrial grade discuss throwing with our own MOFCOM with Ratan Tata fadng away in another 12 months, discussions on VSNL land patying up taxes becoming more insistent ( oops, its Tata comm now)

The end ( of the bear rally) is near in India’s case (please do no tbuy before 4400 is broken to a new low) and my portfolio of trading plus investing is usually a good leading indicator ( from lounging on the sofa awaiting employment)

Our post on the bond Report will show banks using the MSF and yields staying down as the last experts get entrapped into thinking the Bear has finally come to India, Asia being the land of the eternal Bull panda.

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• Bank of America CEO says 2012 will be ‘a grind in the economy’ (bizjournals.com)
• Happy Thursdays! November buzzes everyone (awardz.wordpress.com)
• BoA in record discrimination fine (bbc.co.uk)

Happy Thursdays! Announcing a sunset for Food inflation

The weekly numbers for the December 3 week continued on a much higher plane even as governments and markets battled with the 9+ figure for November with Fuel group capped at a 0.3 MOM increase to a 15.23% rate, Food  rate down to 4.35% from a 6.6% in Nov 26 figures, and Primary articles looking distinctly sunny at 5.48% instead of more than 7% last week. Thus mfg inflation / basic inputs contributing to that would have also stayed below 4% and the series distinctly showing signs of beating 8% for December except the Fuels number as prices catch up with ourdear dollar basket

Commodities globally have finally entered a decent correction phase as Gold was beaten to the haven by the Dollar, running behind investment allocations as its lower value starts bringing down global portfolio sizes and increasing allocations to equities in just maintaing share of allocation..In case you did not get that, please write..

 

Reliance gets BP to sign the dotted line. FDI charts up to $30 bln despite a thanda 2010 http://india.advantages.us/a-tired-nation-awaits-with-open-arms-indias-e-0

What a December! Cool Deals all around and not just black friday. Really Hot M&A scene. Sirius deal sounds fun too . Stern is a trigger but Sirius has to work hard as the exclusiveness of radio might just not be available to everyone and as apple has shown it can really shake out the moolah if you can deliver new content consistently

A useful dealogic profile of the Atlas Energy sale..We are buy on Atlas http://ping.fm/poD6T AM