Facebook vs Twitter series 13/800: What about Digital Books? Can Kindle be about social collaboration?

I know what you all are thinking. Why suddenly a Kindle in Facebook vs Twitter wars? What about the Friendfeed and the dozen social networks to be branded me too! Where do they come in? Well, to me Kindle comes first because Amazon is a phenomenon on my personal list of Enterprise greats and the other start ups have still got something to prove in terms of viability. Not that the risk is any lesser for a Myspace or a Kindle but My space going down would be a turning point people would remember like AOL, eBay and the others who have had a not so easy time since they set up on the web and who have never graduated to the real Web 2.0 or near real time social collaboration. Amazon and Kindle however have that potential ( may be they will also drop out later like Starbucks) and they can handle innovation and complex consumer minds with a relative ease that would be critical.
 
Long back, during the days of Patricia Seybold’s customers.com and Guy Hagel’s ‘Net Worth’ we saw an expostulation of the success determining parameters of the new invisible continent by Kenichi Ohmae ( let’s face it, the guy was an other world icon but still made it as a strategist on the new web). What the Invisible Continent described in great detail was an Infomediary – An organization or ‘Trust agent’ that would broker all business transactions on the web because they would be entrusted with the Customers foibles and deep seated choices that would make the best buying decision and robust sales. Amazon and Kindle are the perfect intermediaries for such digital transactions like iPhone and iPod have been for music albeit non collaboratively till now.
 
I think the new web needs Kindle and amazon to ramp up the offering in tune with customers, learning the nuances along with the customer as they go along this adventure. For amazon to continue with its 50% market share of the World’s Book Sales has been relatively easy when compared with the others and a vital part of that has been the enriched customer experience which is really beautifully collaborative and store front’ish at the same time. It also highlights the other essential for social collaboration which Facebook and Twitter seem to make light of, ad that is the reading habit. For any transaction on the new web, one has to be a voracious reader to navigate the choices, discuss with friends, colleagues and competitors online and make instant decisions that are almost always right.
 
Kindle could easily include Video, Audio and twitter / friendfeed messaging on the device along with maps and the books to replace other devices you need to carry arund today for a complete mobile experience. I think that’s the way it’s going to go too.

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India's new boom – Infrastructure, Lifestyle and Entertainment

If you have been following the India story closely, India’s new developments are focussed on Infrastructure and Retail along with giant leaps in the Entertainment business. You can look closely at the India stories at http://advantages.us/inframils to get a flavor of what’s happening. 

ADA Reliance (BIG entertainment) has today announced details of its venture with Dreamworks (Steven Spielberg) planning a 40% stake in the final entity capitalised at approx $830 million ($1b at USD rate of Rs. 40) with Disney holding another 15%. The Company holds a target of producing 5-6 films a year. BIG already has agreements with Nicholas Cage’s Saturn, Jim Carrey’s JC23, George Clooney’s Smokehouse, Chris Columbus’s 1492 Pictures, Tom Hank’s Playtone and Brad Pitt’s Plan B among others

On the other hand Retail Lifestyle businesses are increasingly attracting investors with Rabobank’s India Agribusiness Fund picking up a 25% stake in Kishore Biyani’s Aadhaar Retail. Modern retailing businesses in India are predominantly located in cities with FDI restrictions except for Cash & Carry Businesses (100%) and Single Brand retail (51%) Rural Markets may grow at a faster pace at least on the Drawing board. One such project which extends Bangalore’s urban footprint to Bidadi is the Innovative Film City which also showcases the marriage of the rural and the urban as Bangalore expands to the West and the East and remains the fastest growing City in India. The problems on the ground remain. While the new real estate projects are trying to make a strong statement, the depression blues have not gone anywhere. In the showcased retail fund in ET today, for example, apart from Rabo Bank, the other investors are the usual suspects, IFC Washington a couple of /developed/semi developed state development bank(s) and institutions and select private investors. Where is Investor access? Why is it still on the government to make it happen? The FDI limits and the others are fairly rational policies..but where are the investors? Why are global investors so selective about projects? What does it take for them to find out ground realities and put it in the appropriate framework? At the end of the day India’s share in the Emerging Markets Indices is just 5% and emerging Markets worldwide probably get less than 20% of the global capital flows. One Federal Stimulus by Obama will be enough to keep US bankrupt for the next decade. I am not sure we are doing this right.

Nanos will roll into homes by July end and IPL teams are already applying for trademarks as it looks set to become the greatest sporting extravaganza in the world, already ranked at #2 behind the NFL season in the USA. The 3G challenge will tear at Telecom companies’ profits in the coming years ( MTNL has managed 1000 subscribers in its sneak rollout) while public divestment targets were also subdued in the budget but are firming up. The Global ID cards will be implemented pretty slowly, starting off as a Central database, depending of departmental initiative to share information from tax to passport and BPL ration cards, credit card data and other biometric features to enable security and duplicate allocations etc. 

Health and Education have just recently been provided a long lost policy focus. But these investments will also yield success only when the fully integrate into India’s new Lifestyle Economy. Today the same investments are required in the US and the developing world. We need roads, we need power supply, we need an educated performing population and we need affordable healthcare. 

There are other things to be done. To quote the Policy pages of The Economic Times ( pg. 11, Arvind Mayaram) – While investments in roads, ports, airports and urban amenities have a cascading effect on the virtuous cycle of stimulating demand..the impact is the quickest and most spread out through investment in tourism infrastructure. India received just 5.37 million foreign tourists as compared to 57.6 million in Spain. Tourism arrivals grew during the recession worldwide as well.  

Global collaboration and Private enterprise cannot function without the appropriate investment infrastructure either. Investment flows are still uneven and the tenets of this new dream unpostulated. The new web has however found an entry point in global business with increasing discussions on structuring the global memes that bring in change. The question is, as they say in Hindi – Kaise hoga? How will we make it happen!

India’s ICICI Bank is redesigning itself, taking more control of Investment Banking and Venture Capital business while private sector banking players are watching from the sidelines with Kotak Bank and Yes Bank not having the underwriting power or the global reach to finance and provide institutional support to those like the Innovative Film City in Bangalore or even others in and around New Delhi, Bombay, Bangalore and the growing cities of the country making this new boom more a story on paper yet than on the ground. It will be private enterprise that will win in the end with divestments from the government netting probably Rs 50,000 crores to the government to provide the support ( current target is firming up at Rs 15000 Crores or $ 3.15 billion)

This is our story and we have to make it happen. When it does happen it will be a sterling surprise for India’s citizens. One budget cannot make it happen. But all of us can. And we have already decided to make it happen. Onward we move after Outsourcing, to new avenues for progress and growth. Will the Banking sector step up to the requirement? Will new social media bring in more than awareness and readership? How will we move forward? This is not about enabling policy. This is about hard investments. Anyone who can make a successful investment in India’s Lifestyle story will be able to create a successful brand and a successful business empire. Anyone who supports Private Consumption will have the right project skills to win for Team India. 

Tags: Global Investing, BRIC, Emerging Markets, India, India Infrastructure, Retail Lifestyle, Infrastructure, urban infrastructure, rural infrastructure, Power, Roads, Entertainment, Advantage zyaada, zyaada, zyakaira, Lifestyle Economy, Amitonomics

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NHPC and OIL divestment: Upcoming IPOs

State-owned Oil India Ltd and National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) will tap the capital market with their initial public offering (IPOs) in August/September this fiscal. This was stated by the Finance Secretary, Mr Ashok Chawla, at a post-Budget press conference here today.

The other 4 public units for Divestment will be identified by the designated Deptt of Divestment. The budgeted 1854 Crores ($371 million) will flow from the Offers of OIL and NHPC.  Ashok also confirmed that the Government has decided to retain median Cenvat rate at 8 per cent and the service tax rate at 10 per cent. A detailed budget anaysis is available from us The stimulus packages last fiscal brought the Excise collection down to $21.6 billion from a targeted $27.8 billion. Riding on expected increase in economic growth, the Budget 2009-10 has also projected a Rs 10,000-crore increase in surcharge on corporate tax. In 2009-10, the Government expects to collect surcharge (corporation tax) of Rs 26,090 crore compared with Rs 16,001 crore in the previous year, reports The Hindu Business Line. (http://moneycontrol.com)

OIL is engaged in the exploration, production and development of oil and natural gas. In addition, the company is engaged in the transportation of crude oil and production of LPG. It owns and operates 13 drilling rigs and 14 work-over rigs. The company’s operations are spread across India, Iran, Libya, Gabon, Sudan, Yemen and Nigeria. It is a wholly owned Indian government enterprise and holds 26% equity in Numaligarh Refinery Ltd. OIL has a capital base of Rs 214 crore and claims a Return on Networth of 23% with a EPS of Rs 101 ( $2+) which is extremely encouraging on a net worth of Rs 10000 Crores. Its last reported profit (03/09) was Rs 2161 Crores ($432 million)

National Hydroelectric Power Corporation is one of the largest organisation for hydro-power development in India having constructed 13 hydro-power projects in India and abroad with a total  installed capacity of 3694.35 MW (Including the projects under joint venture).  With an  asset value of Rs. 2,00,000 million NHPC has planned to add 2480 MW of power during Xth plan and 6297 MW of power during XIth plan. NHPC’s capabilities include the complete spectrum of hydropower development from concept to commissioning.

NHPC plans to issue 10% new shares and 5% would be divested by the Government. The issue size is speculated to be Rs 2500 Crores ($500 million) NHPC plans to spend Rs 28,000 crore to more than double generating capacity by 2012. Of this, Rs 11,000 crore would have come from its own cash and the IPO and Rs 17,000 crore from borrowings.

The company will offer 168 crore shares, consisting of 112 crore new shares and 55.91 crore shares owned by the Indian government, according to the offer document submitted to the Sebi. Hydro Power has higher efficiency of 90% compared to Coal and Gas (35-50%) but the availability of water resources is scarce because of the natural changes in reservoirs from uneven rains

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The issue size is 167 crore shares at a price band of Rs 30 -36 for an issue size of Rs 6000 crore at the upper end and likely to receive a similar response as Adani. Though realisations for NHPC older plants are lower and water supply a challenge due to earlier monsoons. 4000 out of 6000 crores will go to existing plants and 2000 crores for new plants. NHPC has also kept a greenshoe option of 15%

ITC Welcome Heritage And Fortune Hotels

This is the third attempt in the last 15 years that the ITC Hotels Franchise is launching an expansion plan in either the superluxury or as in these five years, the Budget and the Mid-Tier hotels. Fortune properties previously purchased across pilgrimage towns and other Tier II towns did spark interest but the consolidation is still only half complete and the business model has many doubting thomases. Nevertheless ITC cannot afford to miss the bus and thence 14 new heritage hotels and a few Fortune properties will come up.
 
One quick word on operational and business model challenges :
 
ITC has found historically that moving towards mid tier and Budget properties actually does not bring costs down as much ( Investments in land are not that disparate as one might naively believe) while revenues on the heritage properties are seasonal and at the Fortune and heritage properties are much lower with the F&B component falling further in disproportion and discounts in that tier being much more in vogue because of local competition. However, a little bird did tell me once that properties named Fortune in Gurgaon command up to $400 per night for rooms.
 
Revenues at this tier are unlikely to exceed $65 per average night for boarding and less than 20% in F&B with Capacity utilization unlikely to cross 65% even at tourist growth rates exceeding 10% per annum

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ITC Welcome Heritage And Fortune Hotels

This is the third attempt in the last 15 years that the ITC Hotels Franchise is launching an expansion plan in either the superluxury or as in these five years, the Budget and the Mid-Tier hotels. Fortune properties previously purchased across pilgrimage towns and other Tier II towns did spark interest but the consolidation is still only half complete and the business model has many doubting thomases. Nevertheless ITC cannot afford to miss the bus and thence 14 new heritage hotels and a few Fortune properties will come up.
 
One quick word on operational and business model challenges :
 
ITC has found historically that moving towards mid tier and Budget properties actually does not bring costs down as much ( Investments in land are not that disparate as one might naively believe) while revenues on the heritage properties are seasonal and at the Fortune and heritage properties are much lower with the F&B component falling further in disproportion and discounts in that tier being much more in vogue because of local competition. However, a little bird did tell me once that properties named Fortune in Gurgaon command up to $400 per night for rooms.
 
Revenues at this tier are unlikely to exceed $65 per average night for boarding and less than 20% in F&B with Capacity utilization unlikely to cross 65% even at tourist growth rates exceeding 10% per annum

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Aviation blues, will UDF increase in a year? more fare increases?

Air traffic down seventh month in a row; airport developers hit

While domestic passenger numbers declined 15.3% y-o-y, international passenger traffic, which lately saw some growth, was virtually flat for the first time in January, adding to the airport developers’ woes

Click here to view full story

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A retail comeback story | Mysore Road the new Whitefields « An investment Blog

A retail comeback story | Mysore Road the new Whitefields Mumbai: Consumers have started trickling back to malls and department stores as the economy is stabilizing, say many large retailers, who expect sales to further improve in the months ahead. This sentiment is spread across segments, from value retailers such as Vishal Retail to specialized chains such as The MobileStore, which sells cellphones and accessories and is part of the conglomerate Essar Group, to Reliance Retail, part of the Reliance-Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group. Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd, the country’s largest retailer by revenue, witnessed around 8% growth in same store sales for the month of May compared with the same period last year. In April, the company said it had an increase of 7% and 5% in March. Vishal Retail, which shut two apparel manufacturing units and two stores during the downturn, is now seeing sales picking up again. Chief executive officer (CEO) Ambeek Khemka said, “Sales are picking up gradually and the company has seen a surge of around 20% overall sales in the last three months.” A Reliance Retail official, who did not want to be identified because of company policy, said, “From April, definitely, the consumer sentiment is positive and we have witnessed an increase in sales by around 15% in the last two months and June is looking better than May.” Rajeev Agarwal, CEO of The MobileStore, said, “In the last three months the sales of the company have increased by around 20% which definitely indicates a positive sentiment.” The upturn comes at a time when economists around the world have been speaking of so-called “green shoots” of recovery after an unprecedented global slowdown sharply cut consumer spending. Falling stock indices, declining housing prices, rising inflation and the global economic crisis had led to Indian consumer confidence declining by 26.5 points between January 2008 and March 2009, according to a May report titled Winning Indian Consumers In The Downturn from the Boston Consulting Group. Analysts, too, feel the worst is over for retailers and the sector, whose market size has been estimated at about $25 billion (Rs1.2 trillion), is likely to witness slow and steady growth. During the period, most retailers, among them Spencer Retail Ltd, Aditya Birla Retail Ltd, Future Group, Reliance Retail Ltd and The MobileStore, went slow on expansion, closed stores that were no longer viable, and regularly pitched promotional offers and deep discounts to counter the decline in discretionary spending. In addition, some retailers laid off employees, renegotiated rental agreements signed in a healthier financial climate, and consolidated operations by merging teams, warehouses and back offices. The MobileStore, for example, shut down at least 70 stores, while opening an equal number of new ones after November. Reliance Retail added 100 stores and shut down at least 20. However, some retailers such as Subhiksha, Mumbai-based Foodland Fresh, and Indiabull’s Retail Service Ltd were the worst hit. While Foodland Fresh and Indiabulls Retail Services Ltd have only three and four stores operational, respectively. Subhiksha had to shut down operations due to lack of funding. However, things are looking better for the industry as a whole. Kishore Biyani, founder and CEO of Future Group, said, “We are seeing positive sentiments in consumer behaviour due to the sense of security in terms of job and stable government. With asset prices increasing people have started to feel more secured. Moreover consumption in the country is not going to come down and will continue to grow.” A New Delhi-based analyst with a domestic brokerage said in the last three months the consumer sentiment is gradually improving, and that almost all retailers are seeing a rise in sales across categories. “Retailers may once again see a double digit growth in the next few months if the consumer sentiment continues to grow at the present level,” he said. He declined to be identified because he is not allowed to speak to the media. via Retail glimmer of hope zyakaira notes: In other related news, in Bangalore – Mysore Bangalore Infra Corridor is being used effectively by the traffic, while the paid toll roads from and to the NICE road have picked up some traffic though they are not there yet. Whitefields projects coming up include a Prestige Seconds’ mall. Prestige forum in Koramanagala remains the stellar success and malls in Bangalore like Forum and even the new Oasis / Lifestyle Mall show continued traction throughout the week. We are backing the property at Innovative Film City which is available cheap at rents of $4 psft and less and retains 50000 footfalls in a week without the congestion and with a complete leisure and holidaying destination story around it The Mysore-Bangalore Corridor is likely to see a larger support esp. along the SH-17 which is a regular attraction for Bangaloreans. And personally, someone like Kishor Biyani should not be in this Industry at all and there should be more options for teams like Bharti and Walmart to provide choice to consumers rather than start a shackled business under Business to Business pretext because of FDI restrictions

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New advantages.us family additions

The lighter web site from http://advantages.us is now instantly available on your mobile. This is thanks to the amazing instant mobilizer with the new dotMobi sites. Do try it out and let us know. Also, my Markets and Branding blog is similarly co-hosted by instantmobilizer at zyaada.mobi
 
http://twitterone.com remains ‘Social Networking and New markets at http://twitterone.com. There ain’t a better place than dotcom..
 
Bookmark http://newadvantages.mobi and http://socialone.mobi on your mobile browser and iphones
 
Amit Mittal
On the web Advantage ‘zyaada’ http://advantages.us/zya

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Indian Market Tweets – June 24, 2009

Waiting for a test drive. I did like the Honda Civic, this one is the Optra Magnum _TYY4 ( la unlisted mncs of asia’s largest stock market)less than 20 seconds ago from TweetDeck
 
These Wealth Management reports conned poor Sunil Mittal into starting a new Mutual fund. The team is probly better than Lotus & Mirae _TYY41 minute ago from TweetDeck
 
TCS & Infy leaving obvious hints about better results! _TYY4 (la lost techs of offshoring, printed, bound and hand delivered by GenXvoters)4 minutes ago from TweetDeck
 
Global banks report reiterates our merit lists! check check check! _TYY48 minutes ago from TweetDeck
 
The Bharathi Shipyard offer for Great Oddshore was to be upgraded to Rs 403. Any time now.. _TYY49 minutes ago from TweetDeck
 
NDTV & UTVi continue to be on the job on the Indian Budget. I think TV 18 will be losing a lot of traction this year, unless revamped _TYY4
 
- 12:50 by my watch

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